Race-predicting workouts to accurately project your race times

Jeff Gaudette [00:00:00]: You're gonna run your best race if you have a plan in place. You know, going into a race without really having any idea of what your fitness is or what you're capable of is kind of a recipe for disaster because pacing is such a critical component of running a strong race and having a a good plan is is a big piece of that.

Cory Nagler [00:00:18]: That was coach Jeff speaking about the importance of a good pacing strategy. Today's show is all about predictor workouts, including what they are and how you can use them to craft the most beneficial pacing strategy given your personal level of fitness and racing experience. I think just about every novice runner has had the experience of going out way too hot at the start of a race and paying the price in the final miles. I know I have, and it can feel like your legs have completely stopped working. Alternatively, you might be overly cautious and cross the finish line wishing you'd pushed a little bit harder. In either case, you probably could have run a lot faster with a well crafted pacing strategy. In this discussion, we're gonna help you do exactly that. We'll go over what are race predictor workouts, including how to fit them into your training, along with some examples of workouts you can use to nail down your pacing strategy.

Cory Nagler [00:01:08]: I wish that I'd known these tips when I was newer to running, but these workouts are a staple in my training plans now, and I think racers of all levels can use them to help perfect the racing strategy. So if you're wondering how to pace your next race, this one's for you. An elite runner, but together, we'll explore new strategies and topics to take your running to the next level. This podcast is created and produced by the expert team of coaches at runnersconnect.net, where you can find the best running information on the Internet, as well as training plans to fit every runner and every budget. Jeff, welcome to the show, and a fun one at that today planned.

Jeff Gaudette [00:02:04]: Yeah. I'm excited for it. This is a good time of year to be doing this and, excited to what I've learned in my experience in coaching, you know, what I what I believe to be thousands and thousands of runners. So excited.

Cory Nagler [00:02:14]: Awesome. Well, not to spoil anything, but we're gonna set out to answer the question today. Can you predict your race time without even racing? Give us the sparks notes. Yes or no.

Jeff Gaudette [00:02:24]: Oh, SparkNotes. I would say, in most cases, yes. You can. The more experienced you are, the higher the likelihood that you'll be able to estimate pretty close to what you're running. So I I believe you can.

Cory Nagler [00:02:35]: Okay. Okay. Awesome. I'm glad you said yes because if the answer were no, it would make make this a much less interesting episode.

Jeff Gaudette [00:02:43]: That's for sure.

Cory Nagler [00:02:44]: Cool. Well, let's just start before we go into any specific workouts you can use to predict your race times with a basic idea of why might a runner actually want to predict their race time. There's obviously the curiosity piece. But beyond that, I I think there's maybe some other benefits, and hoping you can touch on

Jeff Gaudette [00:03:01]: those. Yeah. Absolutely. So, obviously, the first one comes to race planning. So the best way you're gonna run your best race if you have a plan in place. You know, going into a race without really having any idea of what your fitness is or what you're capable of is kind of a recipe for disaster because pacing is such a critical component of running a strong race and having a good plan is is a big piece of that. So having a good idea coming into it and using your workouts or using the entire training log that you've had, it can be really helpful in in creating a really helpful, useful train, race plan. So that's number 1.

Jeff Gaudette [00:03:36]: Second, you know, I think a lot of the times it can give you confidence and build on that confidence throughout the training cycle to know that you're on on pace. And then finally, I think, you know, especially if you're doing them throughout the training cycle, intermittently, it it can help you make sure that you're on target. And if you are or not, or I should say if you're not, then it gives you some cause to think, okay. What how should I restructure either my training to get towards the goal that I'm looking towards, or how do I need to change potentially my goal to make sure that when I what I'm looking for in race day is realistic and doable and and not something that I'm just gonna be you're kinda setting yourself up for disappointment.

Cory Nagler [00:04:14]: Yeah. Just coming on this piece about confidence because I think that's an interesting one since it can go both ways. What might you say to runners who maybe have a workout that's meant to be a prediction that doesn't go as planned? Do you often dial back the training in paces, or do you take that as a one off and maybe a sign you need to test again?

Jeff Gaudette [00:04:33]: Yeah. That's a great question. I think, you know, I think anytime you do a a prediction type workout and it doesn't go well, there's definitely the the potential there for it to mentally take you down and to to, kind of, kick your confidence. But there are so many factors that go into the race that you can't, that you can't simulate in a workout. So you have the things like the crowd, the excitement, the taper, the nutrition, all those kind of things that you'll have on race day that you probably don't have in your workout. And so I don't I caution people to not to not go in both directions. Like, don't do a prediction workout and then think, okay. Like, I did this.

Jeff Gaudette [00:05:11]: This this means the race is gonna be easy. Or I did this prediction workout and say that, oh, I need to go to the race and, like, crush it or go out faster than I originally planned. And then, you know, likewise, conversely, if you if you do a workout and it doesn't go great, there's a lot of reasons that could happen. You know? And so don't necessarily look at it as black and white. You know? I've seen it across the board, you know, play out both ways, especially when I ran for the Hansen's Olympic development project. You know, our big workout we did a couple workouts each marathon training cycle where we would consider those, like, our predictor workouts. And I would say that success was, like, 5050 in terms of if the Predictor workout actually predicted your you know, what you're gonna do on race day. And it wasn't necessarily because race predicting workouts type of workouts don't work, it's just that there's a lot of factors that go into how you feel on that particular day.

Jeff Gaudette [00:06:05]: And so, I wouldn't I wouldn't try I wouldn't take too much from it if it doesn't go well. I would look at maybe why it didn't go well. And, you know, for a lot of those things, it could be, you know, did you what were you running up until that race in terms of overall fatigue? Were you coming in tired, fatigued? Was there anything outside of your training in life that could have impacted your workout that obviously might not be there on race day? Did you look at nutrition, especially if you're doing longer workouts, marathon, ultra, that kind of stuff where, you know, were you feeling exactly, like, what you were doing for the race? Did you do a carbo load? That kind of stuff. So there's a lot of factors that can go in. And if you analyze what those factors are, you can start thinking about, okay. You know, if I do x, y, and z on race day, then I'm gonna be capable of doing what I think I was capable of doing on this workout. So

Cory Nagler [00:06:52]: For sure. I think a lot of confidence can come from those workouts. And I'm a big believer in looking holistically at your training and and using that as a gauge to to see the progress in a way to build confidence. But I think, really, what we're talking about today is being able to use those workouts to give you a specific number or range as a way to know what pace you might be able to run. So maybe if you could give our listeners a sense of how you actually would use these workouts in order to come to a time. So as an example, I know the Yaso 8 100 are are a common one where you kind of convert whatever time you can run those 800 in as being the the time you can run a marathon. But, at a kinda high level, how do you how do you convert these workout times into race times?

Jeff Gaudette [00:07:39]: Yeah. That's a great question. So I don't think there's always necessarily direct correlation. So, personally, like, I'm not a big fan of the Yaso 8 100. I think there's a lot wrong with just to me, it's more of a coincidence than a actual prediction. You know, I prefer to do workouts that have some physiological bearing or similar similarity to the the the risk that you're gonna be doing. I think those are the types of workouts that are best to predict what you might be able to do versus, in my honest opinion, like, something like a Yasso 800 is really just coincidence. There's there's no correlation between how many like an 800 meter repeat what you can do for a marathon.

Jeff Gaudette [00:08:17]: So I think picking the right workouts is helpful. And then, like I said, I think the important part is to try to do something that's physiologically close to what you'll be doing on race day. So, for example, like, when I was talking about my time with the Hansen's, we did, a 26.2k predictor. And so we did the idea was for each kilometer to simulate a mile during the marathon. And so the reason that works, better than something like a Yasuo 800, is that the distance is obviously significant. So it's not just, you know, 800 meter repeats. It's a continuous run. It's a pretty long distance.

Jeff Gaudette [00:08:53]: Not everybody can handle 26.2k in training. You know, the training volume that elites are doing, professional marathoners, obviously enabled us to do 26.2k without an issue. But in that sense, it was still physiologically close to the marathon, in the sense of continuous, we had the fatigue in our legs from prior workouts, that kind of thing. So I I encourage people to do workouts that are gonna be physiologically close, to approximating what they'll be gonna be doing on race day. I think the mistake people make with predictor workouts is they try to either do them too often or use every single workout as a predictor workout. Or some type of analysis of, like, what they're gonna be able to do on race day. And I think that can get that makes training difficult. So if you're using race predictive workouts too often, usually, like, for exam well, I would say this for, like, a Yaso 800, like, it's okay if you wanna do it, like, once in your training psych cycle and just kinda just for fun and see what it is.

Jeff Gaudette [00:09:54]: But I find runners will often do them too often and do them, like, every month. And, a, the problem like that, what I talked about is, 1, I don't think they're a great simulator. But, 2, they're really not a great marathon workout. And so when you think about where you wanna put prediction type workouts into your race training, you need to realize that that particular workout is one workout that you may or not be able to do that's gonna increase your fitness towards race day. So you wanna keep that in mind when you're putting your training plan together of, like, you know, you want 90% of your workouts to be getting you fitter for race day, like, taking you taking your, fitness and progress a step forward when it comes to being ready for race day. And so, you know, if 10% of those are race predictive workouts that may not necessarily be taking you a step forward, that's okay. But if 60, 70% of your workouts or sorry. Like, 30 to 40% of your workouts are race predictors or workouts that aren't helping you take a step forward, then I think that's where people that's where they can become a detriment to your training rather than something that's positive.

Cory Nagler [00:10:59]: Yeah. Yeah. I think a lot of runners use this as kind of the the be all, end all, where they're looking for that positive result, and it can lead you to to test it out too much and maybe Mhmm. Put your fitness gains on hold. So I think really in an ideal world, these workouts should be both contributing to your fitness as well as helping you measure it. So you you put out a couple limitations of these workouts in terms of not wanting to do them too often, and also having to have some level of specificity built in. Are there any other limitations or considerations runners need in order to make sure that these workouts are actually an accurate representation of their fitness come race day?

Jeff Gaudette [00:11:37]: Yeah. So in terms of accurate representation, I think those are the 2, you know, critical factors. I think the other mistake I think the mistake people can make is having the workout be too difficult. So you see this more with the marathon, where people are trying to do, like, 20 miles at marathon pace or something like that. And that's just you know, obviously, if you're able to do that, there's a good chance that you're fit enough to do that at on race day. But the problem is that that's gonna take a long time to recover from. And I think we did the episode about talking about recovery and, spacing up marathon training and stuff like that. And, you know, if you're doing a workout that's so difficult that it takes a week to recover from, then that's not gonna be advantageous to performing your best on race day because now you're you're eliminating a percentage of the workouts you can do just to get in one prediction to say to give you the confidence that you might be able to do something on race day.

Jeff Gaudette [00:12:31]: So I just I'd say for people to keep in mind, just make sure that it's not something that's gonna kill you or take, you know, a week to recover from.

Cory Nagler [00:12:38]: I like the example of the 20 mile run at, at marathon pace in part because my coach always describes workouts during marathon training when you have mileage in your legs, is imagining that you're starting every workout, with 6 miles already into the race. So, essentially, at that point, you're looking at an all out marathon effort.

Jeff Gaudette [00:12:56]: Yeah. Absolutely. And, you know, I can definitely see for first time marathoners the mental side of it. Like, there's always the the balance between the physiological side of training and then the mental side of training. And, you know, we get this a lot when we talk about when runners wanna do 22, 23, 24 mile long runs. And, you know, I understand the psychology aspect of it of hope you know, like, giving yourself the confidence that you can go that far, but the recovery time and the impact that it has on your training is just too too much of a detriment compared to the potential psychological gain that you get from doing that particular workout. And I think, you know, that relates to my other point about, you know, trying to make sure that, you know, if you're gonna do predictive workouts, make sure that they're that you have specific predictive workouts in your training, and realize that not every workout is a predictive workout. And, you know, I see this a lot with the training that we write with runners connect is that, you know, we'll assign people workouts and then they'll say, well, my marathon pace I want my marathon pace to be x y z, or my 10 k pace to x y z, and I'm doing these mile repeats, and maybe they're slower or something like that.

Jeff Gaudette [00:14:02]: And, you know, they think to themselves, well, if I'm doing this, how come how is that gonna translate on race day? And, you know, that the the the idea of a workout, again, isn't to predict or to show you demonstrate that you are fit enough or going to be fit enough on race day. The point of a workout is to help you get fit enough that on race day you're be able to do that. And so not every workout is meant to be a prediction. There are workouts that you can do that can help predict, but not every workout is supposed to show you that you can that you'll be able to run your goal on race day.

Cory Nagler [00:14:33]: Yeah. Ultimately, I think for most, the the goal really is to run fast on race day. So it's it's one thing to to run fast in training or to to make yourself feel like you're fit. It's another to actually build that fitness over time.

Jeff Gaudette [00:14:44]: Yeah. Absolutely. And that and that's a that's a really difficult I mean, even, I think, for elites or people that have been training for a really long time, it's really difficult to go into or to have workouts where you're, like, man, I just did like, you know, for a marathon. I just did a temple run 8 mile temple run, and it was barely at marathon pace and I was tired. You know, how am I gonna do this on race day? Like, everybody struggles with that. There's, you know, even elites. And so I would say that, you know, that's just a that's just a mental struggle of, or challenge of training for any distance that you have to overcome. And the more experience you have, the, you know, the more, you know, history you have behind you to realize that that's not the case, but it's still it's still difficult.

Cory Nagler [00:15:24]: Yeah. Yeah. Very tough. I do wanna get into some more specific workouts that runners can use if they are trying to predict their race times. I I think it's easiest if we divide this into separate categories for for shorter middle distance versus long distance just because, as as you said, you really do need that level of specificity. So focusing first just on I'll call it shorter races, but our our audience does veer a little bit more towards the distance. So I'm really talking about 800 meters all the way up to the 10 k here. Are there any specific predictor workouts that you really like for those distances? And can you maybe touch on how to structure them and then how to predict your race time based on how that workout goes?

Jeff Gaudette [00:16:05]: Yeah. So I'll stick to more 5 k, 10 k type prediction slash paces because I think most of the people listening, that's usually the the shortest distance that they do. The 800 in mile are are kind of an a whole different animal, and I think that's such a small percentage of people running those. But for 5 k and 10 k, I think the best types of workouts are when you break down the entire distance. So if you're doing 5 k or 10 k, and you break it down into either 408100 or 1,000 segments. So for the 10 k, I like to do either, like, 8 times 800 or 10 times 10 times 1 k depending on your vault your overall training volume. And then for the, for the 5 k, I like to break it down into either, like, 6 times 800 or 12 times 400. So breaking it down into 5 k total, whether it be 400, 800 month meter repeats.

Jeff Gaudette [00:16:53]: And the goal is to run and whether it's 5 k or 10 k, the goal is to run at race pace or your goal race pace. And then you're giving yourself only 30 to 60 second rest. So in the case of the 5 k workouts, I usually recommend between 30 45 second rest. And then for the 10 k workouts, I recommend anywhere from 45 to 60 second rest. And the idea there is that, a, you're running the entire volume of the or or just under, you know, for the 10 k, 8 k is okay as well. So you're running pretty pretty close to the entire volume of the race distance, and then you're doing it at race pace. And the rate rests in between is just short enough that it's kinda compensating for the fact that you're, you know, not tapered, don't have the competition, don't have the excitement of race day, all those kind of things that kinda factors that in. So you can be off.

Jeff Gaudette [00:17:42]: You know, usually what I recommend when people do race specific workouts like this or predictive workouts is to start, you know, in with 5 k 10 k, start anywhere from 2 to 5 seconds slower than goal race pace, and then kinda work into it. So if the first couple reps go well and you feel comfortable, then you can slowly creep up and creep up into race day pace, or goal pace. So those are those are my workouts that I recommend. I've seen a lot of elites do that. That's very similar to what elites do, when they're trying to predict, you know, what they may be ready for, especially when it comes to, like, world records, American records, that kind of thing. Very, very similar workouts. The the thing I I think the mistake people have made in the past or that I've seen with race predictive workouts like this is just making the rest too long. So that's where, you know, that's a those are good workouts if you make the rest longer and you obviously do them faster.

Jeff Gaudette [00:18:33]: Like, that's a great VO 2 max workout, a great overall workout. And one of those where we're talking about, like, helping you take a step forward. But because the rest is so long, it's not a great approximation of what your fitness will be on race day or what the experience you're gonna feel on race day is.

Cory Nagler [00:18:48]: So just to use as an example, let's say you're doing 500 meters, so 10 of those to equal 5 k. What might be a reasonable amount of rest if I wanted the average pace to be reflective of my 5 k time?

Jeff Gaudette [00:19:01]: Yeah. I would say 30 to 45 seconds. So beginners may wanna or people that are doing less volume might wanna gear towards more 45 seconds, and then more experienced runners can probably get away with 30. The other the nice thing that you can do with this types of workouts is that, let's say, you're have, like, a 16 week plan for 10 k, or a 12 week plan. So, on week 12, let's say you did this particular workout and you took 45 seconds rest and you did it at goal pace. So that went well and you were able to do it. So it shows that, you know, your fitness is gonna likely be where it needs to be. 4 or 5 weeks later, you do the workout again, and now maybe you do it with rest of 35 to 40 seconds.

Jeff Gaudette [00:19:43]: So you lower the rest a little bit, keep the pace of the same. And then again, you maybe do this workout 3 weeks before the race just to see where you're at, and now you're doing it with 30 seconds rest. So it's a great way to kind of allow the workout to be a progression as well as a predictor of what your pace what your pace could be for race day.

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Cory Nagler [00:22:40]: Yeah. And just to kinda dive a little bit more into those rests. Take, for example, a runner who is a 25 minute 5 k runner. So my mind works in kilometers, so I'll go per kilometer pace. So you're you're running 5 minute k's at that pace. Mhmm. If you can hold that pace with 45 seconds, and then you rerun the same workout with 30 seconds rest. Even though your average paces are the same, it would tend to suggest that you're fitter.

Cory Nagler [00:23:08]: So Right. Do both still predict your race time, or is there there kind of an optimal ratio of rest to run time?

Jeff Gaudette [00:23:16]: Yeah. So, you know, that's a great question and maybe a distinction. Like, so when I look at predicting race times, you have to you have to realize where you're at from a fitness perspective. Right? So, like, if you were to predict your race time 16 weeks out from a race, like, it wouldn't make sense if the if the fitness that you were at at 16 weeks out from your race was the fitness that you were gonna be on race day. Like, can you can you understand what I'm saying there? Like, if you're trying to predict something, like, if you're already in shape or if you're already in shape or predicted to be able to run your goal time 16 weeks out, then there's really no point in training. Like, you go out and run the race and at that point and be able to do it. So the idea with the predictor is to say, you know, with where I'm at in my training, is it is this showing that I'm going to be ready on race day to run my race? So that does that make sense? That's a great I'm glad you brought that up because it's a great point. Like, it's not necessarily a prediction of, like, where you're at right now.

Jeff Gaudette [00:24:12]: It can be, but a lot of it is a prediction is is to predict where you're gonna be when race day comes.

Cory Nagler [00:24:19]: Yeah. I think that's a really good distinction, especially probably what most runners are looking for when they're thinking about predicting race times.

Jeff Gaudette [00:24:35]: Yeah. And so, like, again yeah. Doing one doing a prediction workout 16 weeks out isn't gonna give you a lot of data because you're not as fit as you're gonna be 16 weeks down the road. So you need to do the you need to do workouts that are gonna show, okay. Based on this workout and where I'm at within this workout, will I be ready on race day? That's kinda how I look at predictive workouts. And so, again, with the looking at the 5 k and 10 k, that's why I like to keep the pace at goal race pace and then adjust the rest. Or you can also adjust the interval distance. So you could start out by, for example, doing, 12 times 400 or 10 times 400, and then later on in the training cycle do 600 meter repeats or 800 meter repeats.

Jeff Gaudette [00:25:20]: So you're you're increasing the interval distance, and that obviously makes the workout more difficult as well. So

Cory Nagler [00:25:27]: Great. And you earlier touched on not wanting to do these workouts too often. I guess for listeners wondering both when and how often to perform these workouts, you have any thoughts?

Jeff Gaudette [00:25:40]: Yeah. So I would say, you know, throughout a training cycle, you probably wanna do I would say the max predictor type predictor workouts you may wanna do is probably 3. That would be my max. I would say 2 is a good number. I like doing something, you know, like anywhere from 10 to 12 weeks out and then anywhere from 2 to 4 weeks out, depending on kind of what the race instance is. I think those are good that's a good balance of doing something to help, you know, kind of ensure that you're on track, to give you an idea for race day. And then the that would be the first one. And then the second one that's closer to the race is kind of formalizing and and kind of making the race plan a little bit more concrete of, like, okay.

Jeff Gaudette [00:26:18]: This has showed me that I should be in this type of fitness. So now I can set my race I can set the specifics of my race plan based on that data.

Cory Nagler [00:26:26]: Yep. And do you have any belief on race predictors versus races themselves as a predictor? I'm curious. Say say you have, like, 5 k, 10 k in your training plan. How would doing a 5 k to predict your 10 k compare to, say, doing 10 k of volume in a workout?

Jeff Gaudette [00:26:42]: Yeah. So you mean like a 10 k, like, doing like a tune up race?

Cory Nagler [00:26:45]: Exactly. Yeah.

Jeff Gaudette [00:26:47]: Yeah. Personally, I I mean, I think it's harder to gain it's harder to gain data from a tune up race because you're really just running the race. So it's hard to it's not it's harder to predict, extrapolate out, like, okay. If this is if I'm at 10 weeks in my training, I got 10 weeks left and I run a 10 k, like, what is that gonna mean 10 weeks from now? Like, you know, that's it's harder to extrapolate that, but I find that to be a better so that's that's a less accurate prediction, but I find it to be a better data point for where you're at in training to set training goal or training, paces and that kind of stuff for the next 10 10 weeks. So I think there's there's pluses and minus, pros and cons to doing it that way. It's just kind of different of, like, I guess maybe what your ultimate, like, what you wanna get most out of that particular workout. Like, if your real goal is to just get a better prediction of what you might be able to do on race day, then I think a workout's probably a better option. Whereas if you're wanna do something that's a more accurate data point to, how you should set your training up for the next x amount of weeks, then I think a tune up race is a better data point for that.

Cory Nagler [00:27:56]: That makes perfect sense. And one of the reasons I bring this up is I think a lot of runners will use those 5 k, 10 k workouts and try to extrapolate that out to save their marathon time. So that's a good bridge into maybe more of the longer distances. If if not those shorter races, what are some workouts that can be used to predict more of that half marathon to marathon fitness?

Jeff Gaudette [00:28:17]: Yeah. So I set them up a little bit different. So for the half marathon, I use a very similar idea of the 5 ks, 10 ks stuff. Basically, it's running anywhere from 10 to 15 k of volume, usually closer to, like, 15 k, and doing repeats. But now instead of taking shorter rest that are pretty much stopping, like, 30 to 45 seconds rest, that kind of thing, we take anywhere from a minute to 90 seconds, but we are jogging. So we are keeping the rest pretty active. And I say jogging as in, like, probably keeping it close to easy pace. So an example workout might be 6 to 7 times 1 mile with 90 seconds easy running in between.

Jeff Gaudette [00:29:03]: So you're in the the pace being about half about your half marathon goal pace. So the idea is that you're not necessarily resting in the traditional sense of how we might consider, like, you know, you do an interval, you stop, you know, you're almost completely recovered before you start your next one, etcetera. Like, it's more a continue it's more of, like, a continuous run and using the rest periods in there to just make it so that you can complete the volume, if that makes sense. So that's what I like to do for the half marathon. And they and similar to the 5 k 10 k, you can split up the the total distance by however you might want. So you could do something like, 5 or 6 times 2 k, you know, to to make it a little bit longer, those types of things. But the important part is making the rest in between active, making sure that that rest isn't a stop, isn't a walk. It's easy pace or even a little bit faster.

Jeff Gaudette [00:29:55]: So it's something where it's more of a continuous run and that rest is something it's just about making sure that you can get the volume in.

Cory Nagler [00:30:03]: Mhmm. And in terms of the total volume of these workouts, I'm imagining you're probably not prescribing a full 26.2 mile workout to most marathon runners compared to the 5 k where it's maybe a little bit easier to get in that full distance. So what's a reasonable total volume for the workout?

Jeff Gaudette [00:30:20]: Yeah. Exactly. So for the half marathon, I usually suggest between 10 15 k. So for our US people, that's anywhere from, like, 6 to 8 miles, somewhere around the 6 to 9 miles. I would say 6 for, you know, people that are more beginners. Maybe their volume is only 20, 30 miles a week, and then anywhere up to 8 or 9 miles for athletes that are running 50, 60, 70 miles a week for their half marathon training, then I think the total volume for that workout can be anywhere from 8 to 9 miles. And, again, you can split that up however you want, however it makes most sense based on your training. But, again, it's a nice way to be able to progressively build this into your training.

Jeff Gaudette [00:30:58]: So 12 weeks out, you may be you might be able to do the workout where it's, you're running mile repeats for 7 miles of total volume. So know, anyone, like, 12 k total volume, something around that. And then the second time you do the workout, the you're doing 2 k reps or mile and a half reps for us imperial people and keeping the rest the same, keeping the pace the same, keeping the volume the same. But now the the interval that you're running is a little bit longer.

Cory Nagler [00:31:27]: And in terms of rest period, I'm imagining it's probably a little bit longer than the 30 to 45 seconds for shorter distances. What what are you looking at there?

Jeff Gaudette [00:31:36]: Right. So you're anywhere from 60 to 90 seconds rest there. The close you know, the the shorter you can make the rest, the better of a predictor it is. But, you know, don't go too short. Otherwise, you're just doing a super hard temple run. But I I usually recommend between 60 and 92nd rest. So, again, that could be a situation where the first one you do 92nd rest and keep that rest again at a pretty good clip, like easy pace. And then the second time you do the workout, shorten it to 60 seconds rest.

Jeff Gaudette [00:32:06]: Again, showing that you're demonstrating to yourself that you've progressed from the first workout.

Cory Nagler [00:32:10]: I find this really interesting because I think I I may not be alone in marathon

Jeff Gaudette [00:32:25]: generally speaking, I think the 2 predictive workouts that I do, both of them that I learned from the Hansen's are doing some type of long tempo. So in the Hansen's case, they always did 26.2k, which they broke down each k being a mile. I think that might be a little long for people, but, for some beginners, but that can definitely be a volume that people work up to. But I would say that anywhere from doing a tempo run for a continuous run anywhere from 6 to 9 miles for beginners. And then again for more experienced athletes, you can do anywhere from 9 to total, like 15 16 miles. And that would be roughly equivalent to 26 k. That would be the the total volume. And those are I consider this is a continuous run.

Jeff Gaudette [00:33:12]: So you're running at marathon pace, trying to simulate the course. So if you're doing a hilly course, try to do something with, that has undulating hills. You know, if it's a flat course, honestly, there's some there's an advantage to trying to train flat because it's a it's a different, toll and it takes a different toll on your legs. So that's one workout. The other one that I do often is either a 2 by 5 or 2 by 6 2 by 5 or 2 by 6 miles. And you take actually a 10 minute rest in between the in the workout paces. So for example, the workout paces would be about 10 seconds faster than marathon pace, and you take 10 minutes rest between the the 5 mile or 6 mile intervals, and you want to make that rest actually a pretty outstanding or not standing completely, but you don't wanna be running or jogging. The idea is that by standing and not really doing a lot of active recovery between the intervals, you're simulating a little bit of what your legs are gonna feel like the last 6 miles of a race when, you know, for anybody that's run a marathon, you know, you kind of get that dead leg, like, do your legs just don't want to move, feel like you're kind of running in cement? That is what your legs will feel like if you do a 6 mile interval or a little bit faster than marathon pace, stop for 10 minutes, don't do much, and then start running again, like, your legs are gonna have that feeling of, like, what? You know, this is you know, you've got everything's kind of pooling.

Jeff Gaudette [00:34:39]: All that blood hasn't been flowing very well. And and so you kinda get that feeling a little bit. I think that's a good simulation for, you know, what you're gonna feel like in that second half or last 6 miles of a marathon. Again, now your total volume is only 10 to 12 miles, but you're getting a pretty good simulation for what you're gonna experience on race day. So that those that tends to be a pretty good predictor for me as well.

Cory Nagler [00:35:00]: I think for anyone who's run these type of workouts before, you might be triggering a little PTSD. I'm

Jeff Gaudette [00:35:06]: Yeah.

Cory Nagler [00:35:07]: I'm just thinking to my own calendar. I've got a 4 by 20 minute, I believe, workout on the on the calendar for next week, and I'm just envisioning the jelly legs of those long workouts you described.

Jeff Gaudette [00:35:17]: Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. There's definitely, you know, some you know, that's another good thing about predicting workouts sometimes is, you know, when you know they're scheduled in your in your training, you can mentally prepare yourself for them just as you would for the race. You know? And so there's pluses and minuses that, you know, it's an additional stress mentally, but it also prepares you a little bit for kind of what you're gonna be feeling on race day. So

Cory Nagler [00:35:38]: And in terms of fitting these into your routine, can you sub them out for your long run, or are they kind of their own thing?

Jeff Gaudette [00:35:46]: Yeah. So, I you can do it either way. So generally speaking, like, when I look at marathon training, at least how we set it up, is your long runs are pretty much every other week. So, like, we don't usually do consecutive difficult long runs in our at least the way we do it at runners connect. So there we will schedule these workouts often on the off week from the long run. So for example, 1 week, you may have that, like, a 20 you may have, like, an 18 mile long run with surges or something like a fast finish, something like that. The next weekend might be a predictor workout or something like a 2 by 6. And then the following week will be another long run with some specific specificity in it.

Cory Nagler [00:36:25]: Yeah. Yeah. No. I think that's a good way to do it. You you get the workout stimulus without it having to be every week as you said, so you're not overdoing it.

Jeff Gaudette [00:36:33]: Yeah. Exactly. And so, you know, we find you know, you try you try not to cram. You know, that always becomes a difficulty with the marathon, especially is, like, how do you fit in all the total volumes you wanna do or all the work that you wanna do without overdoing it? And so I find that to be a good way to spread it out because these predictor workouts are often pretty difficult. Gonna be the more difficult workouts you do during a marathon cycle.

Cory Nagler [00:36:53]: For sure. For sure. So let's use the example now of runners who have actually completed these workouts and how to practically apply it. As you said, we're more so projecting necessarily always equivalent to race time. There's other factors such as what does the race course look like? How's your fueling? How's the weather? So if if you're a runner, practically speaking, who's gone in and you know, hey. I'm an 8 minute miler. We'll use the 25 minute 5 k as an example again. How do you then approach race day if the conditions don't actually lend themselves to running exactly that time?

Jeff Gaudette [00:37:31]: Yeah. So I think, you know, the beauty of the prediction is that most every workout that I gave you, for the most part is run at goal race pace. So if you're able to finish that workout, then that is a is predicting that you'll be able to do that on race day given, again, all the factors that go into race day, the fact that you still have training to do, etcetera, etcetera. Because again, in all of these workouts, you're not doing obviously, you're not doing either the full distance or you're not or you're taking some type of rest in between each interval, that kind of thing. So the the pace the prediction would be the pace that you were able to do for the at the the workout at. So if you're not able to do the pace, then I would say probably whatever pace you were able to do is probably a prediction of what you're gonna be able to do on race day or what your goal should be on race day.

Cory Nagler [00:38:20]: And again, coming back to this example of a runner who can run a 25 minute 5 k, if it is, say, absolutely terrible wins, Do you use a conversion calculator, or do you go by feel? How do you then use that predictor workout as a way to to help yourself come race day?

Jeff Gaudette [00:38:39]: Yeah. That's a great question. I I think in those case, like, if there were some types of, like, outside circumstance, you know, like, you were talking, like, weather or something that was out of your control from a that wasn't a fitness perspective, then I would say the best thing to probably do would be to use some type of calculator. So there are pretty much calculators for everything nowadays, whether it be wind, temperature, you know, cold isn't usually a factor, but heat can definitely be a factor. And so I, like, I know on our site, we have a temperature calculator. So usually there's some type of calculator that you can use that'll give you a good approximation of like if the pace if if the conditions had been better or more ideal, what would your pace have been? So that's how I would do that. Again, now you're extrapolating even another thing out, so it's a little bit less predictive. But you know, we all have to we have to deal in the realities that the training presents itself.

Jeff Gaudette [00:39:36]: And so, that's, you know, really the best way to do it. And and, again, the thing to keep in mind with these predicting workouts is that they are predictions. You know, the idea that's you know, if you look at the dictionary of the word, like, it's not it's not this is a guarantee that this is gonna happen. It's just this is given the data that we have. This is what we think will happen. And so if we look at, you know, all prediction predictions, there's factors that come into play. So that's what I would do is just for the I I think for almost every circumstance, there's probably some type of calculator that you can use to to figure it out.

Cory Nagler [00:40:07]: Yeah. And I I like that you brought up the point of these are really predictions, and they're not a 100% full proof. So to flip this example on its head, if it's perfect conditions, flat course, would you always recommend that runners go out and try to hit that pace bang on even splits the whole way? Or are there always try

Jeff Gaudette [00:40:32]: to ease yourself in. You know? So even if it's just, you know, to always try to ease yourself in. You know? So even if it's just, you know, for 5 k, 10 k, even if it's a couple, you know, 2, 3, 4, 5 seconds slower than goal raise pace for the 1st interval or 2, like, I always find that to be a better way to go about it. And same thing with the marathon or half marathon workouts, like, really easier way in. Not only is that physiologically a better way to approach the distance, whether it be racing or workouts, but it also gives you a better opportunity to adapt the workout based on how you're feeling. So if you're kinda get into it and you're a little bit slow and you're just not feeling great, then keep the you know, you you can always keep your that workout 2 or 3 seconds slow. That's gonna be a better and and in the end, let's say you did that. Let's say you just kept your workout 2 or 3 seconds slow for a 5 k predict or something like that.

Jeff Gaudette [00:41:20]: That's a better predictor of, okay, like, I might want to adjust my goal, like, on race day. And it'll give you a better data point of, like, okay, I probably need to adjust my goal 2 or 3 seconds per mile, or, you know, maybe 15 seconds slower than what maybe what I'm hoping that I can run. Like, the idea behind a prediction is to give you a data point to set your race plan up. You know? And so that's a better data point than saying, screw it. I'm gonna go out and I'm gonna run 5 k pace no matter what. And what'll happen in those work in those instances is if you're not feeling great, you're gonna blow up. Like, you'll run you'll maybe be able to do the first 2 or 3 intervals at pace, and then the the 4th and 5th one is gonna fall off. And then by the end, you're, like, barely maybe you're you're not even take you're taking 2 minutes rest or, like, your paces are 10, 15 seconds slower than what you wanna run.

Jeff Gaudette [00:42:07]: Like, if you like, if you have a really bad workout there, like, yeah, you had a bad workout. That's not the end of the world. But the problem is now you don't have a good data point for, like, how you need, like, how you need to go into race day and approach, like, what might be a good prediction or a good goal or race target. And so you wanna keep that in mind that these predictor workouts, like, yeah, they can be a good fitness boost or a way to, you know, take that next step in your fitness. But the goal is to give you a data point for what the race is. So starting out a little bit slower and easing your way in is a better way to get a data point if things aren't gonna go great.

Cory Nagler [00:42:42]: And if you realize, again, going back to the workout here more so than race day, that things are not going as you planned. Is it a more accurate predictor if you then dial back the pace a little or if you extend out the rest? Because I know sometimes runners will play around on either end when workouts are maybe not going exactly as expected.

Jeff Gaudette [00:43:02]: Yeah. I find I think the best way to do it is to slow down the pace, because I think the rest is a critical component of sticking to the physiological, adaptations or the physiological similarities to the race distance that you're running. And so if you start extending the rest, then you're not really simulating the physiological demands of the race anymore. Now you're just doing a workout, which is fine. But again, the the point is to get a predictor or to get some type of data point on your on your fitness. So slowing down the pace is that data point that says, okay. I need to slow my pace down. And so that's the better data point.

Cory Nagler [00:43:37]: Yeah. Yeah. I think that that's good advice, and that's generally how I try to approach workouts is sticking to kind of the the spirit of them and then adjusting based on how you feel.

Jeff Gaudette [00:43:46]: Yeah. Exactly. And I think that goes into you know, that's a that's a general training thing. Like, I think, you know, when we look at rest when I look at rest and workouts, like, I use them as a way to hit a physiological component, whether it be threshold or VO 2 max or etcetera, etcetera. And so if you start playing around with the rest, you know, with yeah. When you start playing around with the rest, I think you start changing the target, the value of the workout or what you're trying to stimulate.

Cory Nagler [00:44:14]: Yeah. And at the end of the day, the goal here is really to to get that best fitness come race day, not, not just to predict what it's going to be. So coming back to this end goal of trying to run as fast as you can, whatever your goal race is, be that 5 k all the way up to marathon. Is there any other advice you might have for runners who are preparing for spring races?

Jeff Gaudette [00:44:35]: Mhmm. Yeah. So I think, especially when it comes to predictions, and we touched upon this a little bit, but, don't think that the prediction has to come true on both ends. Right? Like, whether it didn't go if your prediction workouts didn't so go so great. Like, that doesn't mean that you're gonna have a bad race. It just means that maybe you wanna start out a little bit more conservatively or go in with a more conservative race plan. And then I've seen lots of athletes, and I've I've had this happen myself where you kinda go in with a conservative race plan and then things go great. Like, your fitness is where it needed to be or ahead of it and just for whatever reason, your workouts weren't showing it.

Jeff Gaudette [00:45:10]: And then you go when you have a great race, especially if you start out, if you use that data point to be able to adjust your starting paces or starting, race plan a little bit slower than maybe what you wanted. I've seen a lot of people have success with that. And then likewise, like, if you have great predictions, like, that doesn't necessarily mean you should go out and, like, I see this happen with people that do Boston. Like, they have really good workouts and they're feeling fit. And then they get there and they start, you know, Boston notoriously downhill, and they say, screw it. Like, My predict all my workouts have gone great. Now I'm feeling great on these downhills. It's because I'm in such great shape.

Jeff Gaudette [00:45:46]: And you see this all the time with people that run Boston. No matter how much you tell them those downhills are you know, fool's gold. Like, you'll hear it after the race, like, oh, I just but I thought I was, like you know, it just felt so easy. You know? And so I just caution you to if things are going really great, that that's fine. That doesn't mean you go out and run balls to the wall like Hell's Bells. There's nothing going to happen Those first you know, maybe the first half of the race, that kind of thing. So, you know, use it as a data point, and then use that data point to craft your race and still be conservative, I would say.

Cory Nagler [00:46:17]: I think that's a really good way to wrap it up is that these are great ways to predict at a high level what your fitness is, but it's it's really one data point. It's not perfectly spot on. And at the end of the day, you need to interpret it as such and and remember that you have to trust your training and how you're feeling as well.

Jeff Gaudette [00:46:33]: Right. Yeah. I mean, I think prediction workouts are great. They're they're nice to have. But the real bread and butter of how you're gonna perform and what's gonna make a bigger difference in how you're gonna perform is all of the totality of the workouts that you've done over that 12, 16 week period. You know, again, predictive workouts can be great. No one workout will make or break a training cycle. You know, nobody's ever gone out and run the world record based off one awesome workout.

Jeff Gaudette [00:46:58]: You know, it's over not only into the training cycle, but, you know, if you wanna talk about real training stuff, like, it's over it's the accumulation of your training over months months months months, not just 1 or 2 great workouts.

Cory Nagler [00:47:09]: Couldn't have said it better myself and hopefully super reassuring for any runner preparing for spring races that's put in months of hard training at this time. So, Jeff, I I think this is phenomenal. Great way to both predict your workout, or rather your race times, but also to make sure that it all comes together on race day as best as possible. So thank you for joining me and having this conversation today.

Jeff Gaudette [00:47:31]: My pleasure. It was such a it was such a pleasure. And good luck to everybody running your spring races.

Cory Nagler [00:47:34]: Awesome. Good luck, everyone, and happy running. Thanks for listening to the Run to the Top podcast. I'm the showrunner at Runners Connect, where as always, our mission is to help you become a better runner with every episode. You can connect with me on Instagram at corey_ Birth your Strava by searching Corey Nagler, and please consider connecting with the rest of our team at runnersconnect.net. If you're loving the show, you can help us reach more runners by leaving a rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. Lastly, if you want bonus content, behind the scenes experiences with guests, and premier access to contests, then consider subscribing to our newsletter by going to runnersconnect dotnetforward/podcast. I'll see you on the next show, but until then, happy running, everyone.