Analyzing Race Performance When Conditions Are Not Ideal

As many of the popular Spring races quickly approach, the fear of another hotter-than-normal racing season is on the minds of many runners. In 2012, many of the largest and most prestigious races in the US were crippled by unseasonably warm temperatures.

Who can forget the near record temperatures in Boston that forced nearly 2000 runners to seek medical attention. Or, what about the Green Bay Marathon, where the race organizers saw so many runners suffering heat-related issues, they closed the race down before it finished. Worse yet, a week later, the Madison Marathon was cancelled just 36 hours before the start of the race due to a record-setting forecast.

Perhaps this year will be different, but there’s still a good chance you’ll face less than ideal conditions on race day. And, temperatures don’t have to be record-setting to impact your performance. Research has shown that for runners who aren’t heat-adapted, racing in temperatures at a mere 70 degrees Fahrenheit can reduce performance as much as five percent. Over the course of a marathon, that small percentage can add up three to five minutes. Furthermore, heat isn’t the only culprit. Racing against a headwind can cost you valuable time as well. Research shows that a “substantial” headwind (i.e. one approximately equal to the pace you are running at) will set you back 12 seconds per mile.

Given the numerous weather and course conditions that can lead to a less than ideal finishing time, how do you measure your performance when conditions are not optimal? Simply looking at your finishing time isn’t a good indication of how well (or poorly) you ran, so we need some other metrics. In this article, we’ll examine some ways you can analyze and compare your performance when racing in hot, windy, hilly and otherwise difficult conditions.

Using familiar or nearby competitors

Thanks to the Internet and easily searchable results databases, it’s now pretty easy to compare your results to those that finished close to you.

Simply make a list of the 15 to 20 runners who finished just ahead and just behind you (the larger the sample size, the more likely you are to have “accurate” data). Then, search a results database, like athlinks, for previous performances of those who finished around you. Find a recent personal best at the same distance and compare how far they were off from their best.

Keep a list of how much slower each runner ran and you’ll soon start to see an average. This average is a pretty decent indication of how much faster you might have been able to run on a better day. Of course, it’s not perfect, but it’s a good approximation.

Using previous years’ results

Another easy way to analyze your time is to measure against previous years’ results. You can do a simple comparison between what you or a familiar competitor ran on the same course in better conditions. However, you can also compare what place your time garnered and what it would have earned you the previous year.

Simply find where you would have placed with the same time in better conditions and calculate the number of positions you lost. Now, subtract that same number of positions from your current place and note the time. This will be a roughly comparable finishing time on an ideal day. This isn’t a fool proof method, but it’s another simple way to calculate potential performance.

Age groups and gender

You can narrow your place comparison to age groups and gender as well. The same instructions apply, but comparing performances with other athletes who may have more in common will help make the final figure more accurate.

Calculators and formulas

The final comparison tool is to use temperature, hill, or wind calculators to estimate what you might have run in more ideal conditions. They’re simple to use, but like the previous three methods, they aren’t 100 percent accurate. All calculators use a formula based on researching the “average” runner. If you’re a heat-adapted runner, a temperature calculator might not provide an accurate estimate for you. Likewise, the calculators assume conditions that are the same throughout the entire race. Even when running a point-to-point course like Boston, you’re not going to have a headwind the entire way (although it may feel like it).

Putting it together

On their own, each one of these methods isn’t very accurate. However, when used in conjunction, you can calculate an average comparable performance that will provide a basis for what type of time and performance you would have earned in perfect conditions. Sure, it’s a bit of work to enter names into a results database, compare previous years results, and find the right calculators for your “average”. But, no one ever said runners weren’t obsessive compulsive!

A version of this article originally appeared on Competitor.com